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EURUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

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We heard from many central bank speakers last week. The overall consensus remains the same: wait for more data to determine the extent of further tightening. Although most of the FOMC expects two more rate hikes this year, it has consistently emphasized that these decisions are data-driven. Last week’s data leans them more towards an increase due to the surprisingly hot weather housing market datastable
US Jobless Claimsand US Services PMI exceeding expectations.

Naturally, the upcoming NFP and CPI reports will play a pivotal role. However, if we continue to get good data, the market’s current expectation of a Fed rate hike in July looks likely. On the other hand, ECB spokesmen have made it clear that a July hike is almost guaranteed unless there is a material change in data, but a September hike is much more data-dependent and surprisingly given the recent weak European PMI datacan stop the ECB already in July.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Time Frame

EURUSD daily

On the daily chart, we can see that the EURUSD has erased all of the May weakness and moved back to the 1.10 handle in June. The price was rejected quite strongly there and weak European PMIs extended the fall to 1.0844. The trend remains bullish for now moving averages they are still crossed to the upside and the price is making higher highs and higher lows, but the momentum is weakening and if the Eurozone data continues to disappoint, we could see a top here.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Time Frame

EURUSD 4 hours

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the last push into the 1.10 handle was diverging with
MACD, which was a sign of weakening momentum and is often followed by a pullback or reversal. The price has since broken the previous swing low and trend linewhich may be an early sign of a trend change and pulled back into the 21 and 50% red moving average Fibonacci retracement level. Here we should expect sellers to pile in and target further declines to the 1.0779 support.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Time Frame

EURUSD 1 hour

On the 1-hour chart, we can see that at the moment the price is trading in an ascending channel, with buyers leaning on the red moving average of 21 for further growth. We can expect more buying pressure to come if the price breaks the 61.8% level and the trendline as such a move would invalidate the bearish setup. On the other hand, more conservative sellers can wait for the price to break below the lower boundary of the channel to pile up and extend the selloff to the 1.0779 support.

This week it’s a bit empty on the data front with only EZ CPI and US Jobless Claims on Thursday and US PCE scheduled for Friday. However, we will hear from many members of the central bank again.

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