So far this week, the Japanese yen has gained 0.64 percent against the US dollar, continuing a three-week rally.
Demand for safe currencies has increased recently as cases of the coronavirus continue to rise in places like Europe and the United States. In Japan, the total number of reported coronavirus cases has surpassed 100,000 as cases continue to rise on the island amid a reopening of economic activity. More than 1,700 deaths have been linked to the virus. Globally, 44,878,011 cases of the coronavirus and 1,180,914 deaths have been reported.
The Bank of Japan on Sunday released the Corporate Services Price Index, which measures the prices of services traded by companies. The index was at 1.3 percent in September (year-on-year) after a 1.1 percent increase in the previous month. On Monday, the Cabinet Office reported that the Coincident Index was at 79.2, after being at 78.3 in July. August’s headline economic index stood at 88.4 after reading 86.7 the previous month.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported on Wednesday that retail sales fell 8.7 percent year-on-year after falling 1.9 percent in August and worse than analysts had expected. fall by 7.7 percent. Sales at major retailers fell 13.9 percent in September, following a 3.2 percent drop in August.
On Thursday, the Bank of Japan announced its decision to leave cash rates unchanged, staying in line with analysts’ expectations. In its report, the bank downgraded its forecasts for economic growth and inflation.
The outlook remains uncertain, according to the report. GDP is expected to contract by 5.5 percent by the end of the current fiscal year, more than previously estimated. Next year, the economy is expected to grow by 3.6 percent, better than originally expected. The bank expects consumer prices to fall by 0.6 percent, a bigger drop than previously expected, which is likely to fuel concerns that inflation is too low.
“The Japanese economy is likely to improve as a trend as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic gradually fades, although the pace of recovery will be modest,” the bank said in its report.
Japan’s economy could shrink by 5.5 percent by the end of the current fiscal year, more than previously expected. Still, the recovery is expected to be more pronounced next year, as gross domestic product could increase by 3.6 percent.
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said he would push for “fiscal measures” to boost Japan’s economic performance. This raised expectations for the third budget, which could be announced next week.
The third budget is much needed, at least according to the analysts interviewed, given the huge impact of the pandemic on the performance of the Japanese economy. The Japanese government has already pledged to spend around $2.2 trillion in fiscal aid. If approved, an additional $95.51 billion package could be implemented, although the amount is yet to be decided.
