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Ukraine’s counter-offensive is proving tough as Russia is fighting back

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A Ukrainian soldier mans a machine gun as he rides a MaxxPro MRAP in the recently liberated village of Blagodatne in the Donetsk region on June 16, 2023, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Anatoly Stepanov | AFP | Getty Images

It is becoming increasingly clear that Ukraine may face a long and bloody struggle in its counter-offensive to recapture Russian-occupied territory in the south and east of the country.

While still in its infancy, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has yielded limited gains so far, with eight settlements captured in the past two weeks. Ukrainian officials are the first to admit that the country’s armed forces face a “tough fight” with Russia in the coming weeks and months.

“We knew it from the beginning [the counteroffensive] that it won’t be a walk in the park,” Yuri Sak, a senior adviser to Ukraine’s defense ministry, told CNBC on Tuesday.

“We knew that the Russians had months to prepare for this, we knew that they had built very, very heavily fortified defense lines, that they had laid millions of mines along the front line. They were buried so deep that we already had a very good idea , that it will not be an easy task,” he added.

Fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces has intensified in recent weeks as Kiev launched counteroffensive operations in at least three frontline areas from southern to eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar announced Monday that over the past week, Ukrainian troops have advanced up to seven kilometers (4.3 miles) in the direction of Zaporozhye in southern Ukraine and liberated 113 square kilometers (43.6 square miles) of territory, including eight settlement.

But in later comments last night, Maliar admitted that “it is quite difficult for our defenders to advance because the enemy has thrown all his forces to stop the offensive”, adding that the fighting “is hot both in the east and in the south”. Earth.

“Despite the fact that our troops are advancing in several directions to the south, the enemy is concentrating many of its forces in the east and continues to advance there,” she noted in comments translated by Google.

“The enemy does not give up positions easily and we must prepare for it to be a tough fight. [that’s] exactly what is happening now.”

The Russians are not ‘running away’ this time

Defense analysts said they expected Ukraine to launch larger counterattacks against Russian forces in the coming months, suggesting that its early phase had been used to probe for weaknesses in Russian defense lines.

Maliar appeared to support this view, stating: “The ongoing operation has several tasks, and the military is fulfilling those tasks. They are moving as they were supposed to move. And the biggest blow is yet to come.” She didn’t elaborate more.

Still, pressure is mounting on Ukraine to deliver solid results — and analysts told CNBC that expectations may be too high.

In a way, they said, Ukraine has become a victim of its own success after last year’s “illumination” counter-offensives saw it. to regain part of the Kharkiv region in the northeast of Ukraine, and much of Kherson in the south.

Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker, told CNBC on Tuesday that it was too early for a counteroffensive to pass judgment. “Last year, Ukraine showed a kind of flash effect and the Russians just ran. This time the Russians are not running, they are fighting, but we are moving forward.”

Ukraine’s defense adviser Yuriy Sak urged patience, telling CNBC: “We understand that everyone — and we more than anyone else — wants [the counteroffensive] to move faster.”

“But in the day-to-day planning of the next military steps, our military command takes into account the number one priority, which is to advance further with minimal losses on our side. Therefore, the decision-making is very, very careful, we are still probing and conducting reconnaissance in various parts of the front line, in some places we are moving better or faster,” he added, alluding to the gains to date in the south.

Need more weapons

The oft-heard cry from Kiev was for more weapons from its international allies, and more importantly, the rapid delivery of those weapons to Ukraine.

While Ukraine was waiting to launch a counteroffensive – facing inclement weather and muddy ground and waiting for a long-awaited decision on the delivery of battle tanks such as the Leopard 2 – Russia was able to build a deep defense in the occupied territory. .

As such, Sak said the relatively slow progress of the counteroffensive so far was to be expected, but reiterated Ukraine’s call for more military equipment from its international allies.

“A lot will depend on our ability to get faster and more weapons because air superiority along the front line is completely in Russian hands… so we all have to be patient and make sure we advance without exposing our troops.” to unnecessary risks,” said Sak.

Kiev’s NATO allies have been widely criticized for their slowness in agreeing and supplying hardware to Ukraine. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, chairman of Rasmussen Global and former NATO secretary general, told CNBC on Tuesday that “we are too slow.”

“The embarrassing discussion about the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks is a very sad example of how we allowed Putin to use our hesitation to strengthen his defenses,” Fogh Rasmussen said, adding that it made it much more difficult for Ukraine to implement it. counteroffensive.

Lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko agreed that it was frustrating to see the West delay arms deliveries.

Ukrainian military personnel undergo armored maneuver training on German-made Leopard 2 battle tanks at the Spanish Army’s San Gregorio training center in Zaragoza on March 13, 2023.

Oscar Del Pozo | Afp | Getty Images

“It’s so frustrating that the arms deliveries are so gradual and slow, and it really weakens our position and we’ve given the Russians time to fortify and consolidate.” [themselves] but we will do what we can,” he told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe.

“Militarily, we don’t have air superiority, unfortunately we don’t have as many troops, that’s obvious, but we have higher morale among our troops and that gives us the opportunity to move.” forward,” added Goncharenko.

It is very likely that this new phase of the war could be costly in terms of personnel and military equipment for both sides.

This was announced today by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Facebook Monday that the force had “eliminated” 1,010 Russian soldiers in the last day alone amid fierce fighting. Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defense he said in Telegram yesterday its forces killed at least 600 Ukrainian soldiers in fighting in the south and east of Ukraine, especially in the Donetsk region.

Both Ukraine and Russia tried to minimize their own reported losses while trying to make those of their opponents look bigger. CNBC was unable to verify the information in the reports.

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